题目：On the Geographic Spread of Chikungunya between Brazil and Florida: Deterministic and Stochastic Approaches

报告人： Shigui Ruan， Department of Mathematics, University of Miami,

报告时间：2025年12月16日10：00 - 11：30

报告时间：数学楼2-1

Abstract: Chikungunya (CHIK) virus has been imported annually to Florida in the last decade due to Miami's crucial location as a hub for international travel, particularly from Central and South America including Brazil, where CHIK is endemic. This talk consists of two parts. Part I addresses the geographic spread of CHIK, incorporating factors such as human movement, temperature dependency, as well as vertical transmission, and incubation periods, for different patches. Central to the model is the integration of a multi-patch framework, and in the numerical analysis it is considered human movement between endemic Brazilian states and Florida. Part II presents a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) model to assess the probability of long-term CHIKV establishment in Miami-Dade County following repeated introductions of external infectious individuals over a finite period of time. This work aims to identify seasonal windows of heightened endemic risk and evaluate the impact of vector control strategies on mitigating the likelihood of persistent transmission.

阮士贵简介：1992年获加拿大阿尔伯塔大学数学系博士学位，1992-1994年在加拿大菲尔兹数学所和麦克马斯特大学做博士后。1994-2002年在加拿大道尔豪斯大学数学与统计系先后任助理教授和副教授，现为美国迈阿密大学数学系终身教授。主要研究领域是动力系统和微分方程及其在生物和医学中的应用。在包括PNAS、Lancet Infect Dis、Memoirs Amer Math Soc、Trans Amer Math Soc、Indiana Univ J、J Funct Anal、J Math Pures Appl、Math Ann等学术期刊上发表了200多篇学术论文，受到了国内外同行的关注与大量引用，2014 和2015 年连续被汤森路透集团列为全球高被引科学家。担任了一些重要学术期刊如Bull Math Biol（高级编委）、DCDS-B、IJBC、J Math Biol、Math Biosci等的编委，是Math Biosci Engin的主编（数学）。作为项目负责人多次获得美国国家卫生研究院（NIH）、美国国家科学基金（NSF）、国家自然科学基金会资助。2013年获得海外及港澳学者合作研究基金资助。